Nigeria's election to affect investment

The tendency that new investments especially from the West would manifest soon in Nigeria is slim. The much anticipated geopolitical risk in investment will also douse the enthusiasm in the promotion of Nigerian Content as many local contractors who are globe trotting looking for foreign financial and technical partners in order to fit into the Nigerian Content business pattern may find it difficult to consummate such marriage.  Owners of yet to be developed marginal fields in Nigeria would also suffer delay and may lose their fields , as it is been extremely difficult to woo investors from the West who are not good in conducting business in volatile environment.  At this time, it is only the Chinese and Russians who as a result of their business models and political styles have their doors carefully opened for investment opportunities.

The risk of a possible show-down in Nigeria, an OPEC member nation, with a possibility of disrupting oil production  is calculated to be more, if for any reason the incumbent President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian, and a Niger Deltan happens not to be selected as the People’s Democratic Party’s flag bearer for the April election.

While chances are slim that Jonathan who is currently the frontrunner in this upcoming election may not be picked to carry the baton for his ruling PDP Party which in every indication is clear will produce the next president in Aso Rocks; investors and observers are becoming wary that if the political situation is not well handled among the actors, the nation might drift into anarchy thereby inviting Nigeria’s power-hungry military out of the barracks. This is a situation which may not bode well for the young democracy being nurtured in Nigeria. The October 1st car bomb blast near Eagle Square in Abuja that killed up to 12 people while President Jonathan was giving his address in celebration of the nation’s 50th independent anniversary, various warnings by MEND for more mayhem to come and the recent bombing of AGIP Pipelines in Bayelsa, Jonathan’s home State are indications that the coast is not yet clear and it’s not completely “Uhuru” for Nigeria.

Jonathan who is popular amongst the ruling governors is been challenged in the race by General Babaginda, Nigeria’s former military Head of State, well beloved by the military class, Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President in Obasanjo’s regime, who is well accepted among the founding members of People’s Democratic  Party, Bukola Saraki, incumbent and popular Kwara State governor, who is also the head of Nigeria’s Governors’ Association, and Aliyu Gausau, former National Security Adviser to the incumbent administration, a contender who among this bunch is known to be with little or no political stain.

These candidates for the presidential election challenging Jonathan who are from the Muslim North are resonating the same tune:  that the PDP zoning philosophy mandates the North to finish their second term (8 years) in 2015, and that disqualifies Jonathan from contesting. To muster a formidable consensus candidate that would win Jonathan who has become the favorite front runner in the primary election of People’ Democratic Party, has not been easy for the Northern elements.  As time is running out and the days of the election approaching, the current wave favors Jonathan who might simply clinch the ticket and continue in office as Nigeria’s President. It has began to dawn on many that Jonathan is not only utilizing the power of incumbency to soar, but has also won the hearts of many Nigerians who are yearning for a new way forward and were also appreciative for the political maturity displayed by the president when the tussle to replace the then sick Umaru Yar’Adua was agog. Speculations are high that even the candidates from the North may end up accepting Jonathan to continue until 2015 as a consensus candidate, and with the understanding that he will pave way for a take over by young Northern leaders like Ribadu and El Rufia.

An understanding of the personalities involved in Nigeria’s presidential race gives hope that the house may not be completely on fire. It could be all politics! The steps being portrayed by these presidential hopefuls depict something like the Argentine tango called “Pasodoble” in which the dancing couple projects a façade of war, while underneath is well knitted love chemistry.

Nigeria, like most 21st century democracies will soon be embroiled in lot of “Sweet Heart Deals” to compensate and pacify some of these political matadors, thereby ensuring a melodramatic transition into the next regime.  Such deals and gargantuan political compensations dubbed in petrodollar would be to the disadvantage of the impoverished millions of Nigerians.

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