Forecast:  Violent protests likely ahead of contentious general elections in Uganda

Analysis:  Ugandans are scheduled to go to the polls on February 18th to vote in a presidential and parliamentary election. Incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, who is contesting again in a fourth consecutive term, is poised to win, which will very likely incite opposition unrest and protests. According to local reports, opposition parties have stated that the Electoral Commission was not transparent and had been set up to favor Museveni and are therefore gearing up to tabulate and announce their own results. Museveni’s government has, in recent years, been perceived as very corrupt and insensitive to the basic needs of the masses. In the weeks leading up to the general elections, organized demonstrations by opposition leaders to protest against the Museveni government will very likely take place. Violent clashes with security forces, and/ or pro-Museveni groups can be expected in Kampala, Entebbe and other large towns. Target areas for protestors include the area around the Electoral Commission’s headquarters, while government infrastructure and some assets of political parties will likely be vandalized. Key electoral candidates are also at risk of attack. Armed militias, according to local reports, are being organized by local political parties to intimidate and frustrate voters during the February 18th election day. However, any indication of election fraud and a lack of free and fair voting process will very likely incite violent confrontations between anti-government elements and security forces. Looting of shops, damage to vehicles and commercial properties will likely take place. Furthermore, political grievances and anti-government protests could probably turn along ethnic lines, and members of Museveni’s ethnic Banyankole group, including supporters from the Buganda kingdom, may be attacked. With the current political impasse in Cote d’Ivoire, we could very well see a situation akin to Kenya’s 2007 post election violence, and much worse than violent incidents that took place during Uganda’s 2001 and 2006 elections. Energy assets, particularly located in western Uganda towns like Masindi are at high risk of damage during political unrest. A probable terror attack ahead of the polls by Somali group, al-Shabaab, which is opposed to Ugandan troop presence in Somalia, is also present. The Museveni government will temporarily close down Uganda’s borders during the election, which will likely disrupt the flow of cargo from Kenya.

    Related Articles:

    Uganda's Presidential election

     www.cfr.org

    Ugandans expect  better election

     www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/6888334/934060/-/xos8ov

    Uganda's Election Chief Promises Better Results in 2011

     abcnews.go/.../ugandas...raps-election/story?id=12121231

Share Link: