Risk factors rising for global oil markets: Economist Intelligence Unit

EnergyWorld - New Delhi: The world needs new measures for today’s fast-changing global markets as the number of risk factors that could potentially disrupt them is growing, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said.

Over the last two years, crude oilproduction cuts by OPEC countries and Russia have helped to clear the global oil supply glut. By the end of 2018, global stocks of crude oil will have fallen well below the previous five-year average. “Without this buffer in place, oil prices will be much more sensitive to geopolitical risks and unexpected shifts in supply and demand,” the research and analysis wing of the Economist Group said in a report. 

While sanctions were re-imposed on Iran on 4 November, the US reversed its earlier position and offered waivers to eight key importers of Iranian oil. This has eased fears of a near-term supply crunch, but policy volatility under the Trump administration means that these could re-emerge at any time. 

Also, Venezuela continues to grapple with a debt crisis that threatens to bring down the current government, while several other countries, including Nigeria and Libya, could also see periodic supply disruptions as a result of domestic political volatility. Yet, low-cost shale oil production is rising quickly in the US, threatening to shift global supply patterns, the report said.


 

EnergyWorld - New Delhi: The world needs new measures for today’s fast-changing global markets as the number of risk factors that could potentially disrupt them is growing, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said.

Over the last two years, crude oilproduction cuts by OPEC countries and Russia have helped to clear the global oil supply glut. By the end of 2018, global stocks of crude oil will have fallen well below the previous five-year average. “Without this buffer in place, oil prices will be much more sensitive to geopolitical risks and unexpected shifts in supply and demand,” the research and analysis wing of the Economist Group said in a report. 

While sanctions were re-imposed on Iran on 4 November, the US reversed its earlier position and offered waivers to eight key importers of Iranian oil. This has eased fears of a near-term supply crunch, but policy volatility under the Trump administration means that these could re-emerge at any time. 

Also, Venezuela continues to grapple with a debt crisis that threatens to bring down the current government, while several other countries, including Nigeria and Libya, could also see periodic supply disruptions as a result of domestic political volatility. Yet, low-cost shale oil production is rising quickly in the US, threatening to shift global supply patterns, the report said.


 

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